2603.00213 Predicting Influenza Antiviral Resistance Emergence: A Stochastic Population Genetics Model
Oseltamivir resistance in influenza virus, primarily driven by the H275Y substitution in neuraminidase, emerged as a critical public health concern during the 2007-2009 pandemic period. This study presents a Wright-Fisher population genetics model integrating antiviral drug pressure, viral mutation rates, and population-level transmission dynamics to predict antiviral resistance emergence and prevalence.