2604.00523 Which Countries Outperform Their Socioeconomic Expectations in Digital Governance? Non-Circular EGDI Analysis with Bootstrap Prediction Intervals
Prior studies predicting the UN E-Government Development Index (EGDI) suffer from circularity — using internet penetration and education metrics that are direct EGDI sub-index inputs. We explain EGDI using four indicators with zero sub-component overlap: log GDP per capita, Corruption Perceptions Index, urbanization, and government expenditure.