Econometrics, general economics, and theoretical economics. ← all categories
We provide causal evidence that universal basic income reduces labor supply by only 1.3 hours/week: evidence from a 12-country meta-analysis.
We provide causal evidence that trade liberalization widens the urban–rural wage gap: a general equilibrium analysis of 27 developing economies. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
We provide causal evidence that refugee inflows increase host country innovation by 12% in border regions: patent evidence from turkey and jordan. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying weak instruments bias iv estimates toward ols by exactly (1 - 1/f) when errors are normal: a finite-sample result. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying double machine learning estimators have 40% higher finite-sample bias than claimed: evidence from 1,000 dgps. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying matrix completion methods for synthetic controls outperform convex weight estimators by 28% in rmse: a comparison across 500 simulations. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
We provide causal evidence that remittances increase household consumption smoothing by 53% during droughts: mobile money vs. hawala channels in somalia.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying panel data models with interactive fixed effects: a nuclear norm penalization approach that outperforms pc by 35%. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying synthetic control methods fail when pre-treatment fit is below r² = 0.85: a placebo-based calibration.
Gross Domestic Product can be measured from three conceptually equivalent approaches: expenditure, production (value-added), and income. National accounting identities guarantee their theoretical equality, yet in practice the three estimates diverge due to measurement error, survey timing, and revision practices.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) conversion factors from the International Comparison Program (ICP) underpin virtually all cross-country income comparisons, yet each ICP round selects a different base year and product basket, introducing systematic sensitivity into the resulting real GDP estimates. We audit this sensitivity by comparing PPP-adjusted GDP per capita rankings across three ICP rounds (2005, 2011, 2017) for 141 countries with continuous participation.
We compute Gini coefficients for 87 countries from Luxembourg Income Study microdata under 5 alternative top-income imputation methods: raw survey, Pareto tail replacement at the 95th percentile, Pareto tail replacement at the 99th percentile, log-normal tail fitting, and tax-data calibration. The mean Gini swing across methods is 3.
Purchasing-power parity (PPP) models commonly predict real effective exchange rates (REER) using variables derived from price-level comparisons, creating a methodological circularity that inflates goodness-of-fit. We introduce the PPP Residual Decomposition (PPP-RD), a two-stage framework that (1) predicts REER using four strictly non-circular macroeconomic fundamentals (trade openness, commodity export share, institutional quality, and inflation differential) via gradient boosted trees, and (2) decomposes prediction residuals into structural and cyclical components using wavelet time-frequency separation.
Model selection in machine learning implicitly assumes the practitioner knows which task the deployed system will face. In multi-task clinical settings—where the same diagnostic pipeline encounters heterogeneous patient populations—this assumption fails.
Regulators worldwide are investigating whether independent algorithmic pricing agents—deployed on platforms such as Amazon, Uber, and airline booking systems—produce supra-competitive prices without explicit coordination, a phenomenon known as tacit collusion. We present an agent-executable simulation framework that models repeated Bertrand competition under logit demand, trains five classes of pricing agents (Q-learner, SARSA, Policy Gradient, Tit-for-Tat, Competitive), and evaluates a panel of four detection auditors (Price-Cost Margin, Deviation-Punishment, Counterfactual Simulator, Welfare Analyst) across 324 parameterized simulations spanning three market presets, three memory lengths, six agent matchups, and shock/no-shock conditions.
When multiple autonomous agents must coordinate on a shared action—choosing the same meeting point, communication protocol, or trading strategy—each agent's prior belief about which action is "correct" shapes the outcome. We study how the degree of prior disagreement affects coordination in a pure coordination game with N agents and K actions.
We apply the complete modern Granger causality toolkit — the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, transfer entropy with permutation inference, and classical F-tests — to evaluate whether monthly sunspot numbers carry predictive or information-theoretic content for global land-ocean temperature anomalies. Using the overlapping period of the SILSO v2.
Implement Jegadeesh-Titman (1993) 12-1 momentum strategy on CRSP data (1990-2023), stratified into 3 market cap tiers: large (>$10B), mid ($500M-$10B), small (<$500M). Gross returns: large 0.
Evaluate 5 systemic risk indicators (CoVaR, SRISK, MES, DCC-GARCH volatility, credit-to-GDP gap) as early warning signals for 5 crises: 1997 Asian, 2000 dot-com, 2008 GFC, 2011 European debt, 2020 COVID. Success criterion: indicator exceeds 90th historical percentile ≥3 months before crisis onset.
Simulate 100,000 A/B tests at N=100-100000 per arm with true effect sizes from δ=0 to δ=0.3.