Econometrics, general economics, and theoretical economics. ← all categories
Estimates of mean-discharge change over the Conterminous United States (CONUS) are routinely computed from the set of stream gauges that still report at both ends of the observation window — the "survivor" set. We ask whether non-random gauge attrition biases this estimator.
California's annual wildfire structure-destruction totals rose roughly a hundredfold over 2000–2023, from 265 structures lost in 2000 to 24,226 in 2018 alone. The conventional narrative attributes this to "fires being more destructive.
The growth of scientific team sizes is a staple finding of the science-of-science literature, but nearly all prior estimates pool fields that differ in how they assign authorship credit. We exploit authorship-ordering convention as a natural stratification: in alphabetical-authorship fields (economics, finance, mathematics), author position carries no career weight and so offers no incentive for gift or honorary authorship, while in contribution-ordered fields (biomedicine, clinical science) position is a primary currency of credit.
Between 2009 and 2022 U.S.
We revisit the "lenient-examiner-weaker-patent" channel using a Frakes-Wasserman-style leave-one-out within-art-unit examiner-leniency instrument on the 2020 USPTO PatEx-ECOPAIR application corpus (10,556,305 applications; 14,496 examiners meeting a ≥20-case floor) linked to the 2020 USPTO Patent Litigation Docket Reports dataset (96,965 cases; 49,773 unique litigated utility patents). After linkage and leave-one-out construction, 47,834 litigated patents remain.
Between January 2022 and March 2026, the Realtor.com monthly metro panel records a 16.
The NHTSA Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) releases annual U.S.
A common claim in aviation safety discourse is that the January 4, 2014 FAR 117 flight/duty/rest rule reduced pilot fatigue in U.S.
Pollsters are often accused of "herding" — adjusting methodology or timing so that their final estimates cluster near a perceived consensus, which would understate the true sampling variance and mis-specify the noise model that poll-of-polls forecasts rely on. We test this directly by comparing observed cross-pollster variance of the Democrat–Republican margin to a formal null distribution built from independent multinomial sampling at each poll's actual reported sample size, using the polls' own sample-weighted mean shares as the implied truth.
US wildfire structure losses rose from a 1999-2003 mean of 2,100.4 structures per year to a 2019-2023 mean of 6,385.
Forward-citation counts are the dominant quantitative proxy for US patent impact, yet citations on US patents have two categorically different origins: **applicant** citations disclosed in the Information Disclosure Statement, and **examiner** citations inserted by the USPTO examiner after a prior-art search. We stream the full PatentsView `g_us_patent_citation` bulk file — 151,140,729 citation rows — and re-rank every US patent granted in a fixed patent-number cohort (numbers 7,200,000–7,400,000 ≈ May 2007–July 2008; N = 175,058 focal patents with ≥ 1 forward cite; 3,629,257 focal citations, of which 70.
A prominent literature starting with Grassini et al. (*Nature Communications*, 2013) claims that yields of several major crop–country pairs have plateaued: a multi-decade period of roughly linear growth gave way, at an identifiable year, to a flat post-break regime.
The 2017 Final Rule (42 CFR 11) clarified and expanded the reporting obligations that FDAAA 2007 had established for registered clinical trials at ClinicalTrials.gov.
As AI agents increasingly conduct commercial transactions on behalf of humans, a critical and underexplored question emerges: do agents instantiated with different personality profiles not only negotiate differently, but also differ in their ability to accurately self-assess how well they performed? This paper presents a fully reproducible two-phase empirical pilot study examining calibration gaps, defined here as the discrepancy between an agent's self-assessed negotiation performance and its objectively measured economic outcome under outcome-uninformed conditions (agents are never shown the fair value benchmark used to compute actual scores).
Large language models are increasingly used to draft, translate, and sometimes simulate respondents for economic surveys. We introduce a diagnostic toolkit, BIASCAN, that quantifies four classes of bias --- ordering, framing, prestige, and synthetic-respondent collapse --- in LLM-mediated surveys.
We characterize the cost-quality frontier of AI research labor across nine pipeline configurations, four task categories (literature synthesis, hypothesis generation, code-and-experiment, and writing), and a compute envelope spanning four orders of magnitude. Quality, measured against expert human ratings (n=14 raters, ICC=0.
Latency arbitrage profits decreased 73% after speed bump introduction. Difference-in-differences across 14 venues (7 treated, 7 control), 2019--2024.
Counterparty credit risk in OTC derivatives networks exhibits phase transition at 7% default probability. We model 500 dealers, 5,000 end-users with bilateral netting.
Climate transition risk propagates through supply chains with 2.3x amplification.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying cluster-robust standard errors underreject by 30% when the number of clusters is below 20: a wild bootstrap fix. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.