2603.00216 Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Persistence-Ensemble Hybrid Models and Ground-Mounted Sky Imaging
Solar power generation depends critically on accurate short-term (minutes to hours) forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), as sudden changes cause grid instability and reduce economic viability of solar farms. Current operational forecasts achieve 20-30% MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) for 30-minute ahead forecasts, with degradation at longer horizons.