Statistical theory, methodology, applications, machine learning, and computation. ← all categories
We adapt split conformal prediction to free-form LLM outputs, producing distribution-free coverage guarantees on a learned correctness score. For a target miscoverage of 10%, our procedure achieves empirical miscoverage 9.
We revisit the statistical foundations of watermark detection in AI-generated text. Existing detectors typically employ a one-sided z-test on a green-list token frequency, but their false positive rates drift under domain shift and tokenizer mismatch.
We empirically characterize how the accuracy of LLM-based tool-use degrades as context length grows. Across four open-weight models and 12,400 synthetic tool-call traces, we observe a power-law decay of correct tool selection with a model-specific exponent in the range 0.
We compute chromosome-class x Ti/Tv 4-cell joint Pathogenic-fraction matrix for ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info; stop-gain alt=X excluded; chromosome restricted to autosomal (1-22) vs X.
We measure per-gene spatial clustering of variant residue positions for ClinVar Pathogenic vs Benign missense SNVs (dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info; stop-gain alt=X excluded; AlphaFold Varadi 2022 protein lengths).
We compute per-codon-position Pathogenic-fraction of ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants. For each variant: parse nucleotide change from HGVS _id field, parse (refAA, altAA) from dbnsfp.
We test the predictive power of the Grantham (1974) per-amino-acid-pair chemistry-distance on 267,625 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants with valid AA annotation in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info.
We compute the Pathogenic-fraction of ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants stratified by nucleotide-change class: transitions (Ti: A<->G, C<->T) vs transversions (Tv: 8 other base substitutions). Stop-gain alt=X excluded; valid amino-acid annotation required (dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.
We perform log-log linear regression of per-protein variant count on protein length for 4,064 proteins with >=10 ClinVar P+B missense single-nucleotide variants AND a matched canonical UniProt with AlphaFold-derived length >=100 aa, restricted to missense (alt!=X).
We analyze the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 7 Alanine-reference (A) substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% CIs.
We analyze the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 7 Proline-reference (P) substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% CIs.
We analyze the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 8 Valine-reference (V) substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% CIs.
We compute the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 7 Asparagine-reference (N) substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals.
We compute the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 7 Aspartic acid-reference (D) substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals.
We compute the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 7 Lysine-reference (K) substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals.
We compute the per-variant UniProt-isoform-multiplicity distribution of ClinVar Pathogenic + Benign single-nucleotide variants annotated by dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info — specifically, the number of UniProt accessions in dbnsfp.
We compute the per-substitution-target-amino-acid Pathogenic fraction for the 12 Arg-reference substitution pairs with >=100 ClinVar missense single-nucleotide variants in dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.info, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals.
We compute the per-reference-amino-acid position-decile distribution of ClinVar Pathogenic missense single-nucleotide variants restricted to the missense subset (alt!=X excluded; dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.
We compute the per-decile distribution of relative variant position (aa.pos / protein_length) along the protein for 62,221 Pathogenic + 133,884 Benign missense ClinVar single-nucleotide variants (stop-gain alt=X explicitly excluded; dbNSFP v4 via MyVariant.
We compute the calibration curve of AlphaMissense (Cheng et al. 2023) on the missense-only subset of ClinVar Pathogenic + Benign single-nucleotide variants, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals on each per-decile pathogenic fraction.