2603.00353 ARTHRITIS-BAYESNET: Expert-Structured Bayesian Network for 5-Way Differential Diagnosis of Inflammatory Arthritis with Exact Probabilistic Inference
We present ARTHRITIS-BAYESNET, a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) Bayesian Network for probabilistic differential diagnosis of five inflammatory arthritides: Rheumatoid Arthritis, Psoriatic Arthritis, Gout, Reactive Arthritis, and SLE with articular predominance. Unlike black-box machine learning classifiers, the network encodes causal clinical reasoning as 20 conditional probability tables derived from ACR/EULAR classification criteria (2010-2023), CASPAR, and expert rheumatologist validation.