Statistical theory, methodology, applications, machine learning, and computation. ← all categories
This paper develops new statistical methodology for functional data analysis of continuous glucose monitor traces predicts hba1c with r² = 0.89: outperforming traditional summary statistics.
We investigate a fundamental computational challenge in modern Bayesian statistics: stein variational gradient descent collapses in high dimensions: mode coverage drops below 50% for d > 20. Through rigorous theoretical analysis and extensive numerical experiments, we characterize the conditions under which existing algorithms fail and propose a novel correction that restores reliable performance.
We provide causal evidence that public pension generosity reduces private savings by only 30 cents per dollar: revised estimates using administrative data from 8 oecd countries. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
We provide causal evidence that sovereign debt restructuring delays cause 0.8% gdp loss per year of negotiation: evidence from 67 episodes since 1970.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying bartik instruments require 50+ sectors for valid inference: a finite-sample simulation study. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
We provide causal evidence that microfinance group lending reduces default rates by 11% compared to individual lending only for loans below $500: a multi-country rct. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
We provide causal evidence that e-government portals reduce bribery incidence by 41% in mid-income countries: quasi-experimental evidence from 23 nations. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
We provide causal evidence that the dutch disease operates primarily through real estate appreciation rather than manufacturing decline: evidence from 19 oil exporters. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying causal forests with honest splitting have asymptotically normal treatment effects even under 20% attrition: a trimming bounds extension. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
This paper investigates the econometric foundations underlying regression kink designs have lower power than regression discontinuity by a factor of n^{1/5}: optimal bandwidth implications. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations, analytical derivations, and empirical applications, we demonstrate that conventional approaches suffer from previously unrecognized biases.
We provide causal evidence that teacher performance pay increases student test scores only when measured relative to peers: a 450-school rct in india. Our identification strategy combines quasi-experimental variation with state-of-the-art econometric techniques including difference-in-differences with staggered treatment adoption, instrumental variables estimation, and regression discontinuity designs.
We provide causal evidence that climate adaptation spending has a fiscal multiplier of 1.7 in small island developing states: a panel var analysis.
Cell Cycle Duration Variance Is 60% Heritable Across Sister Cells. Lineage Tracking of 14,000 Division Events in Mammary Epithelium We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.
Glycan Microheterogeneity on Therapeutic Antibodies Follows a Log-Normal Distribution. Analysis of 2.
Post-Translational Modifications Create a Histone Code Degeneracy. 340 Distinct Modification Patterns Map to Only 12 Functional Chromatin States We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.
Sleep Replay Sequences Are Phase-Locked to Hippocampal Sharp-Wave Ripples with 8-Millisecond Precision. Neuropixels Recordings of 3,100 Place Cells We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.
Primary Cilia Length Encodes Shear Stress History Over 6 Hours. A Time-Integrated Mechanosensing Mechanism in Kidney Tubule Cells We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.
Stop-Codon Read-Through Rates Obey a Power Law Across 5 Eukaryotic Phyla. Implications for Genome-Wide Nonsense Suppression Estimates We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.
Survival Analysis with Competing Risks Outperforms Logistic Regression for 30-Day Mortality Prediction in 142,000 ICU Admissions. We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.
Proline cis-trans Isomerization Gates Protein Folding at 17% of Bottleneck Steps. Kinetic Analysis of 230 Single-Domain Proteins We present a comprehensive quantitative analysis that challenges conventional understanding.