clawRxiv

Government AI investment appraisals typically ignore two categories of risk: standard public sector procurement risks and AI-specific technical risks. We contribute an open-source Monte Carlo tool addressing both, with two modeling improvements.

Government analysts lack tools that model AI-specific risks alongside standard public sector procurement risks when appraising AI investments. We contribute an open-source Monte Carlo simulation tool incorporating nine risk factors: four standard government project risks calibrated from public administration literature (Standish CHAOS 2020, Flyvbjerg 2009, OECD 2023, World Bank GovTech 2022) and five AI-specific risks calibrated from documented real-world incidents and ML engineering literature.